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Trends and Challenges in International Security




“Trends and Challenges in International Security: An Inventory” is the first “Horizon2015” study. Its objective is to depict the overall environment in which SSR and SSG will have to be shaped in the years to come. It is an inventory of problems and challenges, not an answer to the question of how SSR and SSG will have to evolve as a result of these trends. That will be the subject of subsequent “Horizon 2015” studies. Nor does this first study claim to be comprehensive – neither with respect to the topics covered or the depth of analysis. There are additional topics that would merit to being looked at and there is much more that could be said on all the issues covered. The study seeks merely to recall the overall background against which the issue of SSR and SSG must be discussed in the coming years. The volume’s job is, so to speak, to set the stage for further analysis to come within the “Horizon 2015” series.


Table of Contents


1. The big issues: The backdrop that needs to be addressed but thatcannot be changed within the next few years
1.1 Demographics
1.2 Economics
1.3 Energy
1.4 Food
1.5 Water
1.6 Climate change and natural disasters
1.7 Confict, war and the future of armed forces
1.8 Space

2. The unfinished business: Things that should have been solved a longtime ago, but are hard to address
2.1 Corruption
2.2 Terrorism
2.3 Proliferation
2.4 Organised crime
2.5 Piracy, hijacking, kidnapping, abduction, and extortion
2.6 Migration and integration
2.7 Parliamentary control and oversight

3. The issues that will be on our desks in the coming years
3.1 Globalisation
3.2 The nation-state in a globalised world
3.3 Failing and failed states
3.4 Nation-building
3.5 Individual rights versus collective security
3.6 Effective multilateralism in development cooperation
3.7 International coordination of efforts: the example of disaster relief
3.8 Multilateral donorship versus local ownership
3.9 Pandemics
3.10 Cyberspace
3.11 Technological progress and innovation
3.12 Public-private partnership

4. Concluding remarks